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 January 23, 2012, 07:24:19 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 1168
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Majority Opinion of 59 Witnesses on the Speed of the LimousineThis is primarily addresses the theory of Andrew Mason that the majority opinion of a large number of witnesses is a reliable guide to what really happened. That a large number of opinions will inevitably statistically converge on the correct answer. First of all, to evaluate the witnesses. I want to concentrate on the speed of the limousine issue. Speed of the limousine is the only issue we can evaluate the witnesses. We cannot grade the witnesses on the number of shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the number of shots. We cannot grade the witnesses on the spacing of the shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the spacing of shots. We cannot grade the witnesses on the direction of the shots, because the Zapruder film does not show us the direction of the shots. The only thing we have to grade them on is the speed of the limousine. That is something we can definitely judge from the Zapruder film. ********** Below is a chart showing the impressions of the witnesses. I did not put names on the charts but used numbers, to save time. I use the same numbers that are used in the list. As a guest, you are not allowed to view links.
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almost
stopped stopped slowed other
1 x
2 x
3 x
4 x
5 x
6 x
7 x
8 x
9 x
10 x
11 x
12 x
13 x
14 x
15 x
16 x
17 x
18 x
19 x
20 x
21 x
22 x
23 x
24 x
25 x
26 x
27 x
28 x
29 x
30 x
31 x
32 x
33 x
34 x
35 x
36 x
37 x
38 x
39 x
40 x
41 x
42 x
43 x
44 x
45 x
46 x
47 x
48 x
49 x
50 x
51 x
52 x
53 x
54 x
55 x
56 x
57 x
58 x
59 x
totals:
26 13 7 13
Of the 59 witnesses:
26 - Said the limousine or the motorcade stopped.
Two used the word "paused" which I consider
to mean stop.
13 - Said the limousine or motorcade almost stopped.
Some said it "stopped" or "almost stopped", which
I count as "almost stopped".
7 - Said the limousine slowed, an accurate statement.
13 - Did not give an opinion. Some said the
motorcade moved very slowly during the
shooting, but did not say whether it had
slowed down. Perhaps they meant the
motorcade always went slowly.
We have 59 witnesses statements. 13 don't say whether the limousine slowed or not. Of the remaining 46 statements, 26 say the limousine stopped, 13 almost stopped and 7 said slowed. So, I have the following questions for Andrew Mason, marked in boldface: Using statistical methods, we would have to conclude the that the limousine stopped. Do you agree with this?Do you see any reason, from the witness statements alone, to say the opinions of the 13 who said the limousine almost stopped should outweigh the 26 who said it did stop?If we did not have the Zapruder and the other films, would not your method of relying on witness statistics have mislead us into believing that the limousine had stopped?If your method could lead us into error on the question of whether the limousine stopped or not, could it not also lead us into error on the spacing of the shots?************************************************** In conclusion: We only tested the witnesses on one issue, the speed of the limousine. It was the only issue we could test them on, cause it was the only thing that we can observe in the Zapruder film. The answers came in three groups, "Stopped", "Almost Stopped" and "Slowed". There was a clear majority that said "Stopped". The witnesses had a clear advantage. We only had one question to ask of them. They had a one in three chance of being right. It is a multiple choice test with just one question and only three possible answers. As simple a test as possible.The majority might have giving us the right answer by sheer luck, thereby giving us the false impression that the majority opinion of a large number of witnesses is reliable. That the majority opinion will reliably statistically converge on the correct answer. The witnesses failed. Clearly the witnesses statements did not statistically converge on "Slowed". They did not even statistically converge on "Almost Stopped". They converged on "Stopped".********** This post also appears in another thread, but I started a new thread because it took a significant amount of work to go through the 59 statements. It is a separate subject than the one on the spacing of the shots, although it does have a good deal of bearing on that question.
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January 23, 2012, 07:05:54 PM
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Super Member
Posts: 1168
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This problem with the witnesses inaccurately estimating the limousine's speed, whether it stopped or not, illustrates an argument I have made before, the possibility of systematic errors.
It witness errors were totally independent of each other, we could use statistics as a very reliable guide to determine what happened. If the reasons witnesses miss estimated the speed of the limousine were:
Witness A: Because he gets more and more tired as the week goes on and is most error prone on Fridays.
Witness B: Because it was his wife's birthday, and he always forgets to buy his wife a present on anniversaries or special holidays, remembers after it is too late, and is now too occupied with this problem to observe things accurately.
Witness C: Because it rained that morning and he forgot to wear galoshes and he is always most error prone when his feet are wet.
Etc.
In other words:
* If people are generally accurate.
* If the reasons a witness is mistaken is totally independent event. Two witnesses may be mistaken, but it generally won't be for the same reason.
Then the odds of 39 out of 46 witnesses being wrong would be astronomically.
*****
But the reasons witnesses might be mistaken, might be the same for many witnesses. We may have systematic errors among the witnesses, in which case we cannot argument the odds of all these witnesses being wrong are astronomical.
For instances, if:
* The first vehicle slowed much less than the other vehicles in the motorcade. This is natural in a motorcade, where if the first vehicle slows a little, the second must slow down even more abruptly, the third even more so, etc., resulting in most vehicles coming to a complete stop, but not the first.
* Most witnesses were riding in, or closest to, a vehicle well back from the Presidential limousine.
* Most witnesses had a good view of the vehicles they were close to and a much poorer view of the other vehicles.
* Most witnesses tended to assume all the vehicles in the motorcade moved at the same speed at all times, which was only somewhat true.
* Most witnesses, when not able to see enough to judge what the Presidential limousine did, made their best guess, instead of choosing to report that they did not know.
If all this is true, we will have systematic error. Witnesses won't make the same error for totally different and random reasons. Instead, witnesses make the same error because, to a large extend, people tend to think alike and to make errors for the same reasons.
*****
Of course, what should most of the witnesses reported? Not, "I saw the Presidential limousine slow down some." They should not report that if they did not see that, even if they made the correct guess. Instead, most should have said "I was not close enough to tell if the Presidential limousine slowed down or not. But the vehicle I was in did stop." But people are reluctant to say they don't know. They don't want to come across as non observant. All to often, they will guess about what really happened and report that as what they observed. And there is likely to be a tendency for different people to make the same wrong guess.
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January 23, 2012, 11:08:28 PM
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Super Member
Posts: 1627
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Mr. GREER: Well, when we were going down Elm Street, I heard a noise that I thought was a backfire of one of the motorcycle policemen. And I didn't--it did not affect me like anything else. I just thought that it is what it was. We had had so many motorcycles around us. So I heard this noise. And I thought that is what it was.
Governor CONNALLY: We had--we had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how far it was, heading down to get on the freeway, the Stemmons Freeway, to go out to the hall where we were going to have lunch and, as I say, the crowds had begun to thin, and we could--I was anticipating that we were going to be at the hall in approximately 5 minutes from the time we turned on Elm Street.
We had just made the turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise which I immediately took to be a rifle shot.
What the he!! was that Greer guy doing, smoking a joint with his walkman on......
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"Good Christians, like slaves and soldiers, ask no questions." Jerry Falwell " I'm not  " T Winky
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January 23, 2012, 11:48:49 PM
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Super Member
Posts: 5253
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Firstly there are lies,Then there are Damned lies ,And then we have statistics. according to statistics 1 in 5 males are or thinking about it! I love Watching Rugby(similar to gridiron but without the padding and make up)but I cannot buy into the statistical facts?. If somebody felt the need to go to all the trouble of working out how to digress from the actuallite' or smudge an issue they need to obtain an existence. Or " look its not actually true but we can make it look like it is" Typical defense accountant tactics and I Object most vehemently!!.
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Some things we know we know,the rest we have to find out for ourselves
One of the first things we found out was that the Warren Commission never pursued a conspiracy investigation.
Louis Stokes
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room
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January 24, 2012, 03:04:57 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 687
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Mr. GREER: Well, when we were going down Elm Street, I heard a noise that I thought was a backfire of one of the motorcycle policemen. And I didn't--it did not affect me like anything else. I just thought that it is what it was. We had had so many motorcycles around us. So I heard this noise. And I thought that is what it was.
Governor CONNALLY: We had--we had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how far it was, heading down to get on the freeway, the Stemmons Freeway, to go out to the hall where we were going to have lunch and, as I say, the crowds had begun to thin, and we could--I was anticipating that we were going to be at the hall in approximately 5 minutes from the time we turned on Elm Street.
We had just made the turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise which I immediately took to be a rifle shot.
What the he!! was that Greer guy doing, smoking a joint with his walkman on......
Many of the motorcycle cops saw the limo stop, they are professional observers. Their collective statements prove alteration, without needing credentialed scientists whose expertise can be bought off or intimidated debating it endlessly. You are right, WHAT THE HELL WAS GREER DOING????? What was he passing to his shooting hand for a full two seconds, prior to JFK getting blasted? Why are the two closest professional marksmen to JFK and their over-the top strange behavior they exhibited as the limo was getting shot up such a target for derision on this website? Is this website protecting the criminals who murdered our POTUS???
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January 24, 2012, 03:10:42 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 9052
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Many of the motorcycle cops saw the limo stop, they are professional observers. Their collective statements prove alteration, without needing credentialed scientists whose expertise can be bought off or intimidated debating it endlessly. You are right, WHAT THE HELL WAS GREER DOING????? What was he passing to his shooting hand for a full two seconds, prior to JFK getting blasted? Why are the two closest professional marksmen to JFK and their over-the top strange behavior they exhibited as the limo was getting shot up such a target for derision on this website? Is this website protecting the criminals who murdered our POTUS???
The Nix film corroborates what is seen in the Zapruder film. The limo did not come to a complete stop, but did slow considerably.
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"The TRUTH doesn't require anyone's belief." - Dale Myers
"The human mind craves a mystery more than it loves the truth." - Dan Rather
"Reason does not always appeal to unreasonable men." - John F. Kennedy
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January 24, 2012, 03:34:58 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 2196
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The Nix film corroborates what is seen in the Zapruder film. The limo did not come to a complete stop, but did slow considerably.
There is another oddity that does not appear in the Zapruder or Nix film. William Manchester, in his book "death of a President", attributes the following quote from Bill Greer, the limo driver, to Jackie Kennedy. ‘Oh, Mrs. Kennedy, oh my God, oh my God. I didn’t mean to do it. I didn’t hear, I should have swerved the car, I couldn’t help it. Oh, Mrs. Kennedy, as soon as I saw it I swerved. If only I’d seen in time! Oh!’ So, Bill Greer says he swerved the limo as soon as he saw "it". First off, what was "it"?? Second, does anyone see the limo swerving (or even a hint of a swerve) in the Zapruder or Nix film?? I don't.
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"He was always cold but the land of gold, seemed to hold him like a spell
Though he'd often say, in his homely way, that he'd "sooner live in Hell" "
~~Robert W. Service~~
"Never have discussions with the monkey when the organ grinder is in the room."
~~Sir Winston Churchill~~
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January 24, 2012, 04:19:52 PM
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Newbie
Posts: 3
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That driver should have been fired ,he should have taken off like a bat out of hell.Think about it people shooting at your car normal person would step on the gas .
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January 24, 2012, 06:12:48 PM
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Super Member
Posts: 1177
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That driver should have been fired ,he should have taken off like a bat out of hell.Think about it people shooting at your car normal person would step on the gas .
Hi Roger, I don't disagree with you that Greer should have been fired. However, you have to keep in mind that it never registered with most people who were there that day that the first loud bang was actually a rifle shot. Many described hearing a firecracker and others thought the noise was from a vehicle backfiring. Backfires were very common back then. Greer said he thought it was one of the motorcycles backfiring. In fact, he thought the second one was as well.
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January 25, 2012, 12:05:36 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 687
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The Nix film corroborates what is seen in the Zapruder film. The limo did not come to a complete stop, but did slow considerably.
Unfortunately the Nix film does not coroborate the Zfilm, in fact, the Nix film shows Greers left arm passing across his chest, the highest point being at least at Greers chin level, immediately followed by JFK getting blasted BACK INTO HIS SEAT. The Zfilm does not show Greers left arm at the headshot that high. In fact the imagery we see is Greers left hand much lower than what is protrayed in Nix. Thus, the Nix film proves that the Zfilm has been altered. Also, nothing said here has invalidated the witnesses who SAW THE LIMO STOP. And no POS altered plastic will ever trump the witnesses who WERE THERE. Also, there has been no response to the observable imagery of Greer passing an object from his right hand to his left hand just prior to the headshot. De Nial is a pleasant river....please enjoy your fantasy journey avoiding the ugly brutality of our Presidents execution by the people who were supposed to protect him.
Jay
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January 25, 2012, 12:35:57 AM
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Super Member
Posts: 603
it started with the gunshots
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if the limo only moved 30 feet from the time he was hit in the back to the time he was hit in the head. in about 5-8 secs that tells me that limo damn near stopped. if he was moving constantly at any speed over 11 mph or more, i just don't think hill would have been able to catch that car. the proof shows how fast that car got up to speed as hill was having trouble climbing on the back of it as greer hit the gas.
but if you watch greer reactions to the head shot. it looks more like panic than it does knowing what to do in a gun shot hostile environment... which leads me to believe that most of the men in that SS organization were not used to anything more than just weapons ranges at the training academy.
hill probably served during the korean war or even wwII, maybe a few others but their reactions are signs of maybe not a military combat veteran
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politics is a very dangerous game, because you never know what evil is lurking against you if you piss them off
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