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Ear-witnesses - Shot Spacing (Read 5840 times)

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Paul Klein

December 23, 2010, 07:39:21 PM

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From Live Recordings’ of the Shots in Dealey Plaza:
Reliability of Ear-Witness Evidence in the JFK Assassination
by Andrew M. Mason
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Conclusions about the shot pattern

As seen from the above review of the evidence, there are at least 44 witnesses who
recalled a relatively long pause after the first shot and a much shorter separation between the last two. Only 6 thought the pattern was the reverse. Another 10 may have thought the shots were fairly equally spaced.
If one assumes that the likelihood of a witness recalling a simple pattern of three loud
noises correctly was at least as great the likelihood of recalling it incorrectly, there is only one rational conclusion to be drawn from this evidence: the last two shots were closer together than the first two. If the shot pattern was 1…2…….3 one would have to explain how it could be possible that only 6 out of 60 witnesses perceived the pattern correctly.
One would have to explain not only why the rest of the witnesses were mistaken, but why 44 of them randomly made the same mistake.

I have yet to hear a plausible explanation as to why a large majority of the ear-witnesses stated the last two shots were closely spaced. This is a direct contradiction to the supposed 5 seconds between the last two shots according to the SBT.

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Tim Nickerson

February 01, 2012, 06:54:32 PM

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That is not a fair assessment of the witness evidence. A fair assessment of the evidence shows that dozens of witnesses saw the limo slow down almost to a stop or to what appeared to be virtually a stop. I think that is not an unreasonable assessment of what actually occurred. None said it speeded up. So if you are trying to make an analogy to the witnesses who said the first shot was after z186 who were completely wrong - observing the opposite of what occurred, I don't see it.

That is way off the mark. 26 witnesses said they saw the limo STOP. Not "almost stop" or "virtually stop".

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It is certainly not trivial. Especially when they recall them doing something quite different. After all, just about everyone was there to see JFK and Jackie so why would they not observe what he did?

Oh, but it is absolutely trivial. It's a speck of dust next to the boulder of a shot unaccounted for.

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Why would the moment of that first shot not be seared into their minds, just as in Mary Woodward's case.

Mary Woodward said the first shot missed. Seared in their minds just like in her case? You may want to rethink that.

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??Have you finally changed your mind about the existence of the ca. z154 first shot? Its either that or you are looking at a very poor quality zfilm. JFK and Jackie are certainly waving in the direction of Mary Woodward. It certainly looks like JFK is smiling and Mary Woodward said they both smiled at them.

I don't see Jackie waving in the direction of Mary Woodward. Perhaps Gerda could help me out with that one.

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First of all, she did not say that she observed that JFK was not hit by it. She just said she didn't think, based on what she saw, that JFK was hit by it.

Well gee, thanks for clearing that up. LOL!

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In any event, in order to assess her evidence, you have to compare it to the rest of the evidence and to the rest of her evidence. One thing she was sure about was the number and pattern of the shots. She said this 25 years later and the clip is here:

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The pattern of the shots that she observed (and which was not hazy to her) - the second two shots were close together (the sound of the first of the last two did not cease before the final shot sounded) makes it impossible that JFK was not hit by the first shot.

From that video:

"With the second and third shots I did see the President being hit."

I don't even have to try to counter your scenario. You're doing a good enough job of it on your own.

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Andrew Mason

February 02, 2012, 02:00:13 AM

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Tim,

This discussion is becoming rather ineffective. We seem to disagree that the correct explanation of what is seen in the zfilm has to fit all the large bodies of consistent witness evidence, each of which is consistent with the other bodies of consistent witness evidence. You feel that this is not required in order to have a correct theory. I contend that the correct theory is the best fit with the evidence. We seem to disagree on that fundamental point.

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« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 02:01:10 AM by Andrew Mason »

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Gerda Dunckel

February 02, 2012, 07:37:05 PM

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That is way off the mark. 26 witnesses said they saw the limo STOP. Not "almost stop" or "virtually stop".

Oh, but it is absolutely trivial. It's a speck of dust next to the boulder of a shot unaccounted for.

Mary Woodward said the first shot missed. Seared in their minds just like in her case? You may want to rethink that.

I don't see Jackie waving in the direction of Mary Woodward. Perhaps Gerda could help me out with that one.

Well gee, thanks for clearing that up. LOL!

From that video:

"With the second and third shots I did see the President being hit."

I don't even have to try to counter your scenario. You're doing a good enough job of it on your own.

hard to say what Jackie did. She did not wave I'd say. Probably Mary Woodward knows.
These are the two clearest frames of her from that sequence.

The numbering is wrong by 2 frames. 182 and 185 is correct.

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Andrew Mason

February 02, 2012, 08:06:32 PM

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hard to say what Jackie did. She did not wave I'd say. Probably Mary Woodward knows.

Jackie turned right at about z191 toward Mary Woodward. Mary Woodward said Jackie waved:

24 H 520: "Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned and waved at them. Just a second or two later she heard a loud noise."

Dallas Morning News - Nov. 23/63: "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we would not get to see his face. But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed."

The zfilm does not tell us whether she waves. So I am not sure how you can say one way or the other from just the zfilm whether she waves. You have to look at the evidence and apply some common sense.

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« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 08:08:06 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Gerda Dunckel

February 02, 2012, 08:24:59 PM

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Croft does not show her waving, she has her hands apparently down in her lap.
The Z film does not show her waving during that sequence. If Woodward said she saw Jackie waving at her then it is uncorroborated by any film or photo.
Woodward was a youg girl at the time, young girls always see things that happened only in their phantasy, like presidents waving at them, throw kisses at them or making ambigious gestures, they do have these phantasies all the time.

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Tim Nickerson

February 02, 2012, 09:18:57 PM

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hard to say what Jackie did. She did not wave I'd say. Probably Mary Woodward knows.
These are the two clearest frames of her from that sequence.

The numbering is wrong by 2 frames. 182 and 185 is correct.

Thank you Gerda! hugsxx

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Andrew Mason

February 03, 2012, 04:58:16 PM

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Croft does not show her waving, she has her hands apparently down in her lap.

Why would the Croft photo show Jackie waving? It was taken at z162. She did not turn toward Woodward until z191.

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The Z film does not show her waving during that sequence.

There is a difference between the zfilm showing that she is not waving - which is not the case - and not being able to see in the zfilm what she is doing.

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If Woodward said she saw Jackie waving at her then it is uncorroborated by any film or photo.
Woodward was a youg girl at the time, young girls always see things that happened only in their phantasy, like presidents waving at them, throw kisses at them or making ambigious gestures, they do have these phantasies all the time.

The zfilm shows that Mary Woodward was accurate in recalling that JFK turned and smiled and waved at her and her friends. She was certainly right about seeing Jackie turn toward her, which she does around z191. Maybe she was right or maybe she was wrong about seeing Jackie wave. We cannot tell. Since there is absolutely no evidentiary value to whether Jackie waved, we are not concerned about the wave. We are only concerned about the ability of Woodward to accurately recall what she saw ie. her reliability as a witness. If we had proof that Woodward was mistaken about Jackie waving at that point one might use that to say that Woodward was imagining things. (For example, Jean Hill's reliability may be attacked on the grounds that she swore she saw a little dog between JFK and Jackie. So when she says she heard 4-6 shots we may not find her evidence persuasive).

So it seems to me that we do not have ANY evidence that says that Woodward was unreliable and a great deal of evidence corroborating her observations that:

1. as JFK and Jackie approached they were looking left.
2. to catch their attention they cheered and waved
3. in response to their cheers, JFK turned smiled and waved acknowledging their cheers,
4. that Jackie turned toward them also,
5. that JFK turned forward as he passed by,
6. that about that time the first shot was heard
7. that the last two shot shots were close together - the sound of the second not ending before the third sounded.

Unless you can point to some evidence that shows that Jackie DID NOT wave at that time, you cannot use the fact that you cannot corroborate Jackie's wave to attack Woodward's reliability.

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« Last Edit: February 03, 2012, 05:04:23 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Gerda Dunckel

February 03, 2012, 06:28:44 PM

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6. that about that time the first shot was heard

by Woodward and who else ?
I am not too familiar with the shot ear- and eye witnesses to the 1st shot.

I can't find anything in your last post that I would say is wrong.

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Andrew Mason

February 04, 2012, 01:45:15 AM

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by Woodward and who else ?
I am not too familiar with the shot ear- and eye witnesses to the 1st shot.

I can't find anything in your last post that I would say is wrong.

The first shot location witnesses include:

1. Hugh Brennan - when the President was inline with the west-most window of the TSBD
2. Hugh Betzner - after his photo taken at z186. He was winding the film to take another when the first shot sounded
3. Philip Willis - at the instant he took his z202 photo
4. Linda Willis - when the President was between her and the Stemmons sign - z195-205
5. Jean Newman - the President had just passed her when the first shot sounded. She was standing at z190
6. Mary Woodward - the President passed by her and he turned forward just before the first shot - she was standing opposite JFK at z200
7. Karen Westbrook - JFK was almost directly in front of her when the first shot sounded. She was standing opposite JFK at z220
8. Wm. Greer - when the limo was almost past the TSBD
9. Robert Hughes - after he stopped filming - his film ends at about z183
10. TE Moore - By the time the President reached the Thornton Freeway sign - the sign was opposite JFK at z220.
11. Billy Clay - she was standing about 150 feet down the street from the entrance to the TSBD just east of where Mary Woodward was - said that the first shot occurred just after the car passed her.
12. Georgia Hendrix - she was standing beside Billy Clay and also recalled that the first shot sounded just after the President passed by.
13. Hurchel Jacks (driver of the VP car) said "My car had just straightened up from making the left hand turn" when the first shot rang out. (zfilm shows VP car still turning at z180)
14. SA Rufus Youngblood, (VP car) said that the VP car had turned the corner and he observed grassy area to his right before first shot was heard. (zfilm shows VP car still turning at z180)
15. Vice-President Lyndon Johnson (VP car) said he heard the first shot "after we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street". (zfilm shows VP car still turning at z180)
16. Lady Bird Johnson, (VP car) said "we were rounding a curve and going down a hill" when the first shot was heard. (zfilm shows VP car still turning at z180)
17. Senator Ralph Yarborough (VP car) "as the motorcade went down the slope of Elm Street a rifle shot was heard by me". (zfilm shows VP car still turning at z180)
18. SA Kivett, (VP Sec. car) "The motorcade was heading slightly downhill toward an underpass. As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 of the way to the underpass" he heard the first shot. (zfilm shows VP security car still turning at z191)
19. SA Johns, (VP Sec. car) "at this time were were on a slight downhill curve to the right" when first shot occurred. (zfilm shows VP security car still turning at z191)
20. SA Taylor, (VP Sec. car) "our automobile had just turned a corner" when he heard the first shot (zfilm shows VP security car still turning at z191)
21. Mrs. Cabell, (car behind VP Sec. car), "we were making the turn" ... "I was directly facing [the TSBD]" when the first shot occurred causing her to look up and see the rifle. (zfilm shows the Cabell car still on Houston Street and was just about to enter the intersection at z191)

There are many others but that should tell you something. I have been unable to find anyone who gave evidence that is inconsistent with this evidence. The SBT requires all this evidence to be completely wrong.

This map shows a plot of the positions of JFK identified by some of these witnesses: As a guest, you are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

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« Last Edit: February 04, 2012, 01:57:00 AM by Andrew Mason »

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Jerry Organ

February 04, 2012, 07:20:42 AM

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Re: Johnson car "rounding a curve" and "proceeded a short way down Elm Street"

Z153 is very clear and close to that first shot at Z156-160:

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The blue convertible is the Johnson car. It's "rounding a curve" and has "proceeded a short way down Elm Street".

Re: Philip Willis - at the instant he took his z202 photo

Willis actually said: "As I was about to squeeze my shutter, that is when the first shot rang out and my reflex just took that picture at that moment. I might have waited another full second..." Two seconds back is the Z156-160 shot, but the Z223 shot is a second away, thus Willis could be confused. In any event, Z202 is NOT the moment of a shot.

Re: Robert Hughes - after he stopped filming - his film ends at about z183

The Hughes film sequence of the limousine passing in front of the Depository ends about 3.5 seconds before Zapruder begins filming at Z133. About two seconds later, Hughes filmed a sequence of the cars on Houston. Could he be recalling the gap between when he stopped filming the Presidential limousine and heard the first shot as he was filming again? He claims it was "About five seconds after I quit taking pictures we heard the shots." Also, a good many people seem to have dismissed that first shot.

I suppose the car is in FRONT of the ladies watching it in the foreground as shown in the Z153 frame above, or do you think they meant "in front of" as being mechanically perpendicular to where they stood?

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"It's, uh, very heavy."
— President Johnson
on receiving the Warren Report
in the Oval Office, Sept. 24, 1964

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Andrew Mason

February 04, 2012, 08:23:52 AM

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Re: Johnson car "rounding a curve" and "proceeded a short way down Elm Street"

That would be a possible interpretation if it were not for the other statements. They make it clear that the VP car had just finished the turn; that the VP security car was just finishing the turn and the Cabell car was just beginning the turn. The VP car has hardly finished the turn at z153. It is still turning at z180. The VP security car is in the first part of the turn at z153 and the Cabell car has not even entered the intersection. This does not fit with their evidence at all.

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Re: Philip Willis - at the instant he took his z202 photo

Willis actually said: "As I was about to squeeze my shutter, that is when the first shot rang out and my reflex just took that picture at that moment. I might have waited another full second..." Two seconds back is the Z156-160 shot, but the Z223 shot is a second away, thus Willis could be confused. In any event, Z202 is NOT the moment of a shot.

You cannot determine it from just one witness. I agree. But when you put them all together there is an amazingly consistent convergence of a shot somewhere between z190 and z210. If you look at Rosemary Willis' head turn between z202 and z204 as a reaction to the sound (which she said she did when she heard the first shot) then it looks to me like z200 is when it happened, give or take a couple of frames.

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Re: Robert Hughes - after he stopped filming - his film ends at about z183

The Hughes film sequence of the limousine passing in front of the Depository ends about 3.5 seconds before Zapruder begins filming at Z133. About two seconds later,

In the time between the end of the limo sequence and the beginning of the next sequence, the first press car moves one car length. Myers used this to conclude that the time difference is about one second.

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Hughes filmed a sequence of the cars on Houston. Could he be recalling the gap between when he stopped filming the Presidential limousine and heard the first shot as he was filming again? He claims it was "About five seconds after I quit taking pictures we heard the shots."

That is absurd. It would require him not only to be wrong that he stopped filming well before the first shot but to have started filming after the first shot. It would be different if you actually had some real corroboration, like Croft saying his z162 shot was AFTER the first shot or Hughes saying his z186 shot was AFTER the first shot. But you don't. All this evidence supports Hughes.

We could maybe clear up one issue: whether Hughes was referring to stopping filming the President's car or filming the motorcade five seconds before the first shot. We might be able to do that if we could examine the letter that Hughes apparently wrote to his parents. It may be with the local newspaper in his parents' hometown. I'd like to see that letter.

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Also, a good many people seem to have dismissed that first shot.

There is no evidence that anyone dismissed it from their minds. It was an enormously loud sound that was very unusual. How could they forget it? Especially the first sound. In tests conducted by the HSCA all the bystanders said it was impossible not to hear it - even with lots of motorcycle noise it was so much louder than anything else.

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I suppose the car is in FRONT of the ladies watching it in the foreground as shown in the Z153 frame above, or do you think they meant "in front of" as being mechanically perpendicular to where they stood?

It means what you would think it means if you were standing on the street watching a parade. As someone passes by you, instead of coming toward you they start going away from you.

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« Last Edit: February 04, 2012, 08:28:15 AM by Andrew Mason »

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